Cuba: Past, Present & Future

5/1/26

Overview

With US policy toward Cuba currently at a potential inflection point, join Active Minds for a past, present, and future look at our communist neighbor to the south. We will cover the Spanish colonial period, Castro’s revolution, and the difficulties of a planned economy. We will also explore Cuba’s relationship with the US, including the Bay of Pigs invasion, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Guantánamo Bay and current implications of the change in US policy.

Key Lecture Points

  • Cuba was settled by the Spanish Empire in the early 1500s, and the Spanish ruled until 1898.  US interest and involvement in Cuba dates back to the early 19th century, when pro-slavery Southern groups in the US saw the annexation of Cuba as a way to increase their own power.  US President James Polk offered Spain $100 million in 1848 for Cuba, but Spain declined.  Later, the US intervened in the Cuban war for independence in 1898, after the USS Maine mysteriously exploded in Havana Harbor.  The resulting Spanish-American War ended with Spain withdrawing from Cuba and direct US rule over the island until 1901.  Thereafter, and indeed up until the time of the Cuban Revolution, US influence in Cuba remained strong, especially in diplomatic and financial matters.
  • US-Cuban relations have been strained since the Cuban Revolution in 1959 which ousted the government of Fulgencio Batista, replacing it with a government led by Fidel Castro.  Cuba’s alliance with the USSR during the Cold War was solidified by
    billions of dollars in aid flowing from Moscow to Havana.  The alliance also meant that relations between the US and Cuba were hostile, as evidenced by the Bay of Pigs Affair in April 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.
  • Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba has missed the annual subsidies provided by the Soviets that played a large role in propping up the Castro regime’s economic situation.  Cuba has sought to solidify its economy via closer relations with other Latin American governments, most notably that of Venezuela, which provided subsidized oil to Cuba.  The 2026 removal of Venezuelan President Maduro carried out by the US has removed that source of economic support and created an energy crisis in Cuba.
  • In 2006 Fidel Castro stepped down due to illness.  His brother Raul, as vice president, took control of the government, officially taking the role of President in 2008. In 2010 Raul Castro announced a series of economic reforms that included, for the first time since 1959, the ability of Cubans to buy and sell cars and houses and travel abroad without permission, a variation on the Chinese model of market socialism.  Raul Castro stepped down in 2018.  He was succeeded as president by Miguel Diaz-Canel, the first Cuban leader since 1959 who is not named Castro and did not fight in the Revolution. 
  • Even after the end of the Cold War, relations between the US and Cuba remained tense, despite a softening of relations between Cuba and Europe.  In his first term, President Obama took a number of initiatives to signal a desire to open a dialogue with Cuba although the embargo remained in effect.
  • In his first term, President Trump took a harder line towards Cuba, partly rolling back Obama’s détente with Cuba by placing tighter restrictions on Americans traveling to Cuba and US businesses wanting to do business in Cuba.  After a slight softening of US policy during the Biden years, the return of Trump to the US Presidency meant a return to hard-line economic restrictions upon Cuba, as well as the possibility of direct US intervention on the island, especially in the aftermath of the toppling of Venezuelan leadership in 2026.

Discussion Questions

  • How has the US embargo impacted Cuba politically and economically? How has it impacted the US?
  • What does the removal of Venezuelan President Maduro portend for the future of Cuba?
  • How have the Cuban exiles impacted American politics and culture?
  • Have you ever been to Cuba?  Little Havana in Miami?  What were your impressions?

More to Explore

Books For Further Reading

  • Kushner, Rachel. Telex from Cuba. Scribner, 2009. 336 pages. This novel describes life in an American enclave in Cuba before the Revolution.
  • Kennedy, Robert F.  Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Ishi Press, 2017.  234 pages.  This is a first-hand, behind-the-scenes recounting of the Cuban Missile Crisis, told by President Kennedy’s brother and advisor, the late Senator Robert Kennedy. 
  • Sanchez, Juan Reinaldo, Axel Glyden, Catherine Spencer (translator). The Double Life of Fidel Castro: My 17 Years as Personal Bodyguard to El Lider Maximo.  St. Martin’s Press, 2016. 288 pages.  Sanchez talks about his years as Fidel Castro’s personal bodyguard.  This “tell-all” expose shows a previously hidden side of Fidel’s life and gives a new perspective on the Cuban story.