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Ukraine at a Tipping Point, 12/1/08
Overview:
Seventy years of Soviet control of Ukraine ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. During that time Ukraine suffered extensive famines, deportation of its citizens, and repopulation of its country by ethnic Russians. Since independence, Ukraine has aligned more with the west, resulting in escalating tension between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. Recently Russian president Medvedev warned ominously of "serious consequences" if Ukraine joins NATO. Join Active Minds as we explore this very delicate situation.
Key Lecture Points:
• After making promising strides since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine is suddenly at yet another unstable point in its history, with economic and political unrest at home. President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, allies in the so-called “Orange Revolution” of November 2004 are now adversaries. President Yushchenko dissolved the Parliament in October 2008 and is now calling for early parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2008.
• The recent global economic crisis has hit the Ukraine hard, with an economy that is in disarray and millions taking their savings out of national banks. Many have converted the local currency to dollars following the global financial crisis, causing the hryvna (the national currency) to drop almost 20%. As a result, the banking system lost $1.3 billion by the second week in October. The International Monetary Fund recently approved an emergency loan of $16.5 billion.
• Yet another factor that will play largely in the future of the Ukraine is the recent Russian aggression in Georgia, which raises questions about Russia’s intentions towards the former Soviet Socialist Republics, including Ukraine. Indeed, Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev have both leveled threats against the Ukraine, should they join NATO and solidify their relationship with the West. Putin said in February 2008 that Russia could aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine if its neighbor and former fraternal republic in the Soviet Union joins the NATO alliance or hosts elements of a missile defense system such as that proposed by the Bush administration in Poland and the Czech Republic. For its part, the Bush Administration has proposed that NATO “fast-track” membership for Ukraine at the December NATO meetings in Brussels.
• All of these factors feed into what is starting to resemble another Cold War, with not-so-veiled military threats and political upheaval with global implications. In many ways, the Ukraine is central to the issue of the West and Russia and events within the Ukraine could have a domino effect around the world.
• The history of the Ukraine, fraught with internal strife and frequent subjugation by dominant neighbors, plays out today on a post-Cold War world stage.
Exploration Questions:
• How does the history of the Ukraine mirror the development of other European nations?
• Suppose Russia had never gained the power it had at its most supreme. How do you think that might have affected Ukrainian history?
• How should the United States handle current events in the Ukraine? Should our government step in and assist the country overcome current obstacles, most notably to NATO membership?
Reflective Questions:
• How do you feel about the oppression that is a common theme throughout Ukrainian history? Can you relate it to events you experienced in your lifetime?
• How do you feel about Russia and its current aggression against Georgia and possibly the Ukraine? Do you think the West should protect small countries that are being threatened?
More to Explore:
• BBC Coverage: http://news.bbc.co.uk
• US State Department on Ukraine: www.state.gov
• CIA World Factbook on Ukraine: www.cia.gov
Books For Further Reading:
• Aslund, Anders and McFaul, Michael. Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006. 216 pages. This volume attempts to distinguish between necessary and facilitating factors in the success of the Orange Revolution. It also discusses the elements that have been commonly assumed to be critical but, in fact, were not instrumental in the movement. Chapters explore the role of former President Kuchma and the oligarchs, societal attitudes, the role of the political opposition and civil society, the importance of the media, and the roles of Russia and the West. Click here to order.
• Reid, Anna. Borderland:A Journey Through the History of the Ukraine. Basic Books, 2000. 272 pages. From the Polish churches of Lviv to the coal mines of the Russian-speaking Donbass, from the Galician shtetlech to the Tatar shantytowns of Crimea, the book explores Ukraine's struggle to build itself a national identity, and identity that faces up to a bloody past, and embraces all the peoples within its borders. Click here to order.
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